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How the Exposure Calculation Works

Learn how Hyver calculates exposure and exposure reduction using probability and breach cost.

Updated over 5 months ago

Overview

This article explains how Hyver calculates exposure and exposure reduction, and how those values influence finding prioritization.
The formula is simple: Exposure = Likelihood × Cost of Breach, but behind it is a dynamic model powered by Hyver’s common graph and maturity data.


Basic exposure calculation

Exposure is calculated using two key inputs:

  • Likelihood – The probability that a threat actor can breach a business-critical asset (BCA)

  • Cost of Breach (CoB) – The financial impact if that breach occurs

Formula:

Exposure = Probability × Cost of Breach

For example:
If the probability of breach is 0.9 and the CoB is $10M, then:
Exposure = 0.9 × 10M = $9M


Exposure reduction

  • The exposure reduction value estimates how much risk is reduced if a specific finding is fixed:

  • Each finding is assessed independently — without requiring other findings to be fixed.

  • Exposure reduction is used to:

    • Prioritize findings

    • Estimate ROI of mitigation efforts

    • Build optimized mitigation plans

If Hyver can’t calculate an exposure value, the field is set to None.


Prioritization based on exposure

Hyver uses exposure values to rank findings by impact.
However, route positioning also plays a role.

Example:

  • F1 has the highest exposure and is prioritized first.

  • F3 may be prioritized second — even if F2 has a higher exposure — because of its location in the attack path.

  • Once F1 is fixed, F3 becomes the next most strategic fix:

Findings that appear on multiple attack routes are marked Critical to Block, which boosts their priority:


Exposure v1 vs. Exposure v2

Feature

Exposure v1

Exposure v2

Coverage

Only findings on attack routes

All findings, even if not on a route

Maturity included?

❌ No

✅ Yes

Graph dependency

Requires mitigation graph

Uses common graph for better accuracy

Input model

Likelihood v1 + CoB v1

Likelihood v2 + CoB v2

Default for new customers?

❌ No

✅ Yes

Exposure v2 provides the most accurate and comprehensive risk modeling in Hyver.


What is the Common Graph?

The Common Graph aggregates attack route data from across all Hyver customers into a unified model.
This allows Hyver to:

  • Normalize real-world graph data

  • Simulate likely attack paths for your environment

  • Calculate probabilities more accurately based on global insights


Maturity impact in Exposure v2

Exposure v2 includes maturity scoring in the calculation.

Example:

  • Without maturity, a finding’s breach probability is 0.44

  • With maturity data, the same path is calculated at 0.47

  • This results in more accurate exposure and prioritization values:


Enabling Exposure v2

To use Exposure v2 (recommended):

  1. Enable Likelihood v2:

    • Go to Settings > Likelihood

    • Select Likelihood v2

  2. Enable Cost of Breach v2:

    • Go to Settings > Cost of Breach

    • Select Cost of Breach v2

These settings are only switchable for customers who originally used v1.
New customers are automatically enrolled in v2 and cannot switch to v1.


Wrap-up / Next Steps

Exposure quantification helps you prioritize mitigation based on business impact — not just technical severity. Enabling Exposure v2 gives you full visibility into risk, optimized for your environment and maturity level.

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