Overview
This article explains how Hyver calculates the Likelihood of Breach (LoB) as part of the Cost of Breach model.
Hyver uses a graph-based approach to estimate how likely it is that a breach could happen in your organization — not just based on theory, but on real attack paths and behaviors seen across thousands of real-world environments.
It’s a data-driven way to understand the chance of a breach, and it plays a key role in how your overall cyber risk is measured.
What Is Likelihood of Breach?
Likelihood of Breach (LoB) is the chance that a specific business asset — or your entire organization — will be successfully breached.
In Hyver, this is calculated using a graph-based risk model that maps all known attack paths and assigns a probability to each one based on how likely it is to be exploited.
In simple terms:
LoB (Likelihood of Breach) = How likely it is that an attacker could reach and compromise your business assets.
A Graph-Based Risk Model
Hyver models cyber risk from the attacker’s perspective. Every possible attack route is visualized in a Mitigation Graph, where:
Nodes represent business assets
Edges represent vulnerabilities (or “findings”)
Each route is weighted with the likelihood that it could be exploited
This approach reflects how real-world attackers operate — exploring paths of least resistance to reach valuable targets.
Powered by Real-World Data
Accurate breach modeling depends on high-quality, empirical data. Hyver’s LoB model is built from:
10+ years of CYE red team operations and assessments
Thousands of attack paths mapped across industries, geographies, and technologies
Deep visibility into how attackers succeed or fail in real engagements
This means LoB is not a guess — it’s grounded in outcomes from real security tests and breach data.
Validated Through Global Benchmarking
CYE validated its LoB model with a study of 150 organizations. Results:
Breached organizations had LoB values between 30–90% (average: 58%)
Non-breached organizations had LoB values between 10–70% (average: 31%)
Global LoB benchmark = 42%
The takeaway is clear:
Organizations with higher LoB are much more likely to suffer a breach.
Why It Matters
Understanding your LoB helps you:
Gauge your actual exposure, not just theoretical impact
Prioritize remediation efforts based on real threat paths
Track improvements in risk posture over time
Important note
LoB values can vary by asset, depending on its accessibility and connected findings
Wrap-up / Next Steps
Risk isn’t just about what could happen — it’s about how likely it is to happen. Hyver’s LoB model brings attacker logic into your risk assessment, so you’re not just guessing, you’re calculating.